What Trump is doing with tariffs: a roundup of links
• Tariff (Wikipedia) A long, informative entry.
"A tariff is a duty (a tax) imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports (or, exceptionally, exports) of goods. Besides being a source of revenue, import duties can also be a form of regulation of foreign trade and policy that burden foreign products to encourage or safeguard domestic industry.
'Protective tariffs' are among the most widely used instruments of protectionism, along with import quotas and export quotas and other non-tariff barriers to trade. In April 2025, President Donald Trump of the United States announced a substantial increase in tariffs and a 10% base tariff on all imported products, resulting in the US trade-weighted average tariff rising from 2% to an estimated 24%, the highest level in over a century, including under the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930" (just before the Great Depression).
• Covering Trump’s tariffs? Here are 4 things you need to know (Clark Merefield, Journalist's Resource, 1-28-25) The Journalist's Resource and Econofact recently hosted a webinar featuring two trade economists and an NPR producer whose reporting teams have covered tariffs. Watch the recording and read key takeaways. Here are 4 things to know if you’re reporting on tariffs. 1. Know the history of U.S. tariffs. 2. Know who pays for tariffs in the short and long run. 3. Know the price and employment effects of tariffs. 4. Know that there are stories to be told about how businesses ‘contort themselves’ to get around tariffs.
---The Long-Term Impact of Steel Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing (Lydia Cox, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2-19-25) Main point: Temporary upstream steel tariffs have highly persistent negative impacts on downstream industry exports, production, and employment.
• 'The Economist' editor unpacks the 'biggest trade policy shock' of Trump's tariffs (Terry Gross, Fresh Air, 4-9-25) President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs have upended the global economy, sending stock markets into turmoil. "This is, without a doubt, the biggest trade policy shock, I think, in history," Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of The Economist, says.
"Trump last week ordered a minimum 10% tax on nearly everything the U.S. buys from other countries. He's also ordered much higher levies on things the country buys from China, Japan and the European Union. However, a lot of those tariffs are in flux, because almost each day the president has either increased some tariffs or paused others."
• Between tariffs and survival, American business owners are doing alarming math (Alina Selyukh, North Country Public Radio, The Economist, 4-7-25) "Even if we pass some (cost) to the consumer, we can't pass it all," says Wells, based in Virginia. "So I really think the honest answer is that businesses will close." For some, it's survival mode, which means shrinking selections and freezing hiring.
• The tariff madness of King Donald, explained (The Economist,4-10-25) As his policy turns on a dime, pity those tasked with justifying his actions.
• What happened the last time the US went all-in on tariffs? (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-8-25) Plus 6 other questions about Trump’s tariffs, answered.
---This Trump policy didn’t work in his first term. He’s trying again. (Eric Levitz, Vox, 2-11-25) Why steel and aluminum tariffs are back — and might stick. Trump’s commitment to re-running his experiment with large steel and aluminum tariffs is curious, since his first try yielded terrible results. It goes without saying that tariffs harm domestic consumers: Putting a tax on imported goods tends to make them more expensive.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff war isn’t over (Eric Levitz, Vox, 4-9-25) There’s a questionable assumption fueling the stock market rally. Wall Street’s burgeoning optimism for the American economy depends on the assumption that Trump will continue retreating from his current position. If he instead maintains his current course, the US will face surging prices and a heightened risk of recession.
---Live Updates: U.S. Market Tumbles; Trump Says China Tariff Is at Least 145% (NY Times, 4-10-25) The S&P 500 fell 4 percent by early afternoon, as investors assessed the worsening trade war with China. The White House clarified the total new tariffs on Chinese goods now stands at 145 percent.
---This Trump policy didn’t work in his first term. He’s trying again. (Eric Levitz, Vox, 2-11-25) Why steel and aluminum tariffs are back — and might stick. Trump’s commitment to re-running his experiment with large steel and aluminum tariffs is curious, since his first try yielded terrible results. It goes without saying that tariffs harm domestic consumers: Putting a tax on imported goods tends to make them more expensive.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff plan is an inflation plan (Ellen Ioanes, Vox, 11-26-24) New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could make life more expensive.
---Tariffs, trade war inflation impact to be ‘pretty ugly’ by summer, economists say (Greg Iacurci, CNBC, 4-10-[25) Economists expect that tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers. The price impact will be noticeable by summer, economists said. Food prices will be among the early indicators, then physical goods, they said. President Donald Trump may change course regarding policy, however.
---U.S. and China Headed for ‘Monumental’ Split, Putting World Economy on Edge (Daisuke Wakabayashi, Alexandra Stevenson, Patricia Cohen, and Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-10-25) Good graphics and timelines. A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy.
"The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a matter of days, with levies that are far greater and apply to broader swath of goods."
• U.S. stocks slide again as euphoria over Trump's tariff pause fades (Willem Marx and Sherisse Pham, NPR, 4-10-25) U.S. stocks slumped on Thursday, giving up a chunk of the spectacular gains seen in the previous session, as some of the relief after President Trump paused many of his tariffs started to dissipate. Many investors say they would rather see an end to this explosive trade war between the world's two largest economies. But China's foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, said on Thursday that China is prepared to continue fighting. But, Minton Beddoes adds, the economic turmoil caused by the tariffs creates "a lot uncertainty, and a lot pain for consumers because tariffs are taxes on consumers. The people who pay this in the end, the cost of the tariffs, are people who pay more for the things that they buy."
Also in this issue: On if the tariffs are to re-industrialize America, or if they're a negotiating tool. Sen. Maria Cantwell says there is bipartisan support to rein Trump's tariffs. Trump trade official signals tariffs are negotiating tool amid GOP skepticism. On the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. On what a tariff war with China might look like
"Being in Washington, DC this week has felt like being on the fringes of an all-consuming—and terrifying—reality TV spectacle: the Trump Tariff Show. Against the made-for-TV backdrop of America’s capital in (somewhat chilly) springtime, my colleagues and I shuttled around to meetings with administration officials, congressmen, diplomats and scholars. We learned about the divisions among Donald Trump’s economic advisers (crudely, the “pause and negotiate” camp led by Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, versus hardliners, such as Peter Navarro). We heard earnest—if unconvincing—attempts by officials to explain the logic of causing the biggest tariff shock in history. We witnessed the bafflement of diplomats and politicians from tariffed countries. We could sense the growing alarm as the markets plunged—and the bewildered relief on Wednesday afternoon after Mr Trump blinked and announced a 90-day pause on his bonkers “reciprocal” tariffs.
• Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button ( Kevin Liptak, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Kayla Tausche and Alayna Treene, CNN, 4-9-25) "Even for a president famous for his policy bobs and weaves, Wednesday’s announcement he was pausing his long-touted reciprocal tariffs for three months amounted to a stunning reversal of a plan he had appeared only a day earlier to be fully behind and came as his own trade representative was testifying on Capitol Hill to the benefits of the tariffs, seemingly catching him unaware of the pause.
"Days of pressure from fellow Republicans, business executives and even his close friends hadn’t appeared to move Trump, who insisted last week: “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
"By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted.
"It was another whirlwind Wednesday at the White House, with advisers scrambling to keep pace with the president’s decisions. He sought to take a victory lap after one of the most humbling retreats of his presidency, eager to take credit for the stock market gains Wednesday – without mentioning the record-setting, trillion-dollar losses over the last week.