• Public Opinion Polling Basics (Pew Research) A short course explaining how public opinion polling works
• 5 basic things journalists need to know about polls and surveys (Denise-Marie Ordway, Journalist's Resource, 10-9-24) This useful piece shares insights from a political scientist, a social psychologist, a statistician and an investigative journalist.
Main points (explained):
1. Survey and poll results are estimates, and sometimes rough estimates.
2. The best surveys and polls are transparent about their methodology and results.
3. The margin of error is important.
4. Researchers often use the terms “poll” and “survey” interchangeably, although they are technically different.
5. Knowing why people have a certain opinion can be more useful than knowing the percentage of people who hold that opinion at a single point in time.
• The margin of error: 7 tips for journalists covering polls and surveys (Denise-Marie Ordway, Journalist's Resource,11-5-18) To help journalists understand margin of error and how to correctly interpret data from surveys and polls, JR put together a list of seven tips, including clarifying examples.
"Let’s say that 44 percent of the 1,200 U.S. adults who responded to a poll about marijuana legalization said they support legalization. Let’s also say the margin of error for the results is +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error tells us there’s a high probability that nationwide support for marijuana legalization falls between 41 percent and 47 percent."
And other explanations, such as "Note that there are real trends, and then there are mistaken claims of a trend."
• Percent change versus percentage-point change: What’s the difference? 4 tips for avoiding math errors (Denise-Marie Ordway, Tip Sheet, Journalist's Resource, 10-5-22) Many people get 'percent change' and 'percentage-point change' confused. Use this tip sheet, featuring insights from data journalism pioneer Jennifer LaFleur, to get it right.
• Why journalists should look at question order when covering survey and poll results (Denise-Marie Ordway, JR, 9-18-24) How question order bias can affect how people answer questions and five tips to help journalists spot the problem
• What’s a nationally representative sample? 5 things you need to know to report accurately on research (Denise-Marie Ordway, JR, 7-9-24) Knowing what a nationally representative sample is — and isn't — will help you avoid errors in covering clinical trials, opinion polls and other research.To help journalists understand margin of error and how to correctly interpret data from surveys and polls, we’ve put together a list of seven tips, including clarifying examples.
• Covering political polls: A cautionary research roundup (Clark Merrefield, Journalist's Resource, 4-25-19) Journalist's Resource rounds up some of the latest political polling research as Joe Biden jumps into the 2020 presidential race. Fascinating roundup and summary of key articles and warnings.
• ‘Horse race’ coverage of elections: What to avoid and how to get it right (Denise-Marie Ordway, JR, 10-12-23) It’s unlikely journalists will stop covering elections as a competitive game, despite researchers’ warnings that it can harm voters and others. Scholars Thomas E. Patterson and Erik Gahner Larsen offer ideas for at least improving so-called ‘horse race’ reporting, concluding with "What to avoid" and "How to Get It Right."
• Election Beat 2020: Polls, polls and more polls — navigating the numbers (Thomas E. Patterson, Journalist's Resource, 10-13-20) Which of the dozens of polls that cross journalists’ desks are reliable, and which should be ignored?
• How did everyone get it so wrong? (Kenneth P. Vogel and Alex Isenstadt, Politico, 11-9-16) “There was too great a belief that demographics are destiny, and that demographics would lead to a certain outcome,” said veteran pollster Geoff Garin. “The reality turned out to be much different that.” “The very premise of polling is based on the idea that voters will be completely honest with total strangers,” said veteran GOP operative Ned Ryun.
“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening.”