Trump's tariffs: a roundup, updated 4-17-25
• 'The Economist' editor unpacks the 'biggest trade policy shock' of Trump's tariffs (Terry Gross, Fresh Air, 4-9-25) President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs have upended the global economy, sending stock markets into turmoil. "This is, without a doubt, the biggest trade policy shock, I think, in history," Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of The Economist, says.
"Trump last week ordered a minimum 10% tax on nearly everything the U.S. buys from other countries. He's also ordered much higher levies on things the country buys from China, Japan and the European Union. However, a lot of those tariffs are in flux, because almost each day the president has either increased some tariffs or paused others."
• The Kleptocracy Presidency (Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic, 4-14-25) Once upon a time (and not even that long ago), blatant conflicts of interest, especially involving foreign entities, were something presidents sought to avoid. Under Trump, conflicts of interest are just part of the system.
• Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect (Bloomberg's tariff tracker, 3-22-25) Financial Times also has a tariff tracker. Search and you'll find several tariff trackers (some may be behind paywalls).
---Trump’s Trade War and the Economic Impact: Tariff Tracker (Jeremy Diamond, Adrian Leung, Jane Pong, Christopher Udemans, and Jason Kao, Bloomberg Law, 4-14-25)
• ‘Alien Enemies’ or Innocent Men? Inside Trump’s Rushed Effort to Deport 238 Migrants (Julie Turkewitz, Jazmine UlloaIsayen Herrera, Hamed Aleaziz, and Zolan Kanno-Youngs, NY Times, 4-15-25) "The Alien Enemies Act gives the U.S. government broad powers to detain people during times of war, but Supreme Court rulings make clear that detainees have a right to challenge the government, and are entitled to a hearing, before their removal.
"The Trump administration sent them to a prison in El Salvador under a wartime act, calling them members of a Venezuelan gang. But a New York Times investigation found little evidence of criminal backgrounds or links to the gang.
"Then, last week, all nine Supreme Court justices said that targeted individuals must be given time to contest their removal before they’re expelled — and demanded that the Trump administration provide that opportunity going forward.
"Officials say they used criminal records, social media, surveillance data, interviews with migrants and other information, like tattoos, to make their accusations.
"But a Times investigation found little evidence of any criminal background — or any association with the gang — for most of the men. In fact, the prosecutors, law enforcement officials, court documents and media reports that The Times uncovered or spoke to in multiple countries suggested that only a few of the detainees might have had any connection to Tren de Aragua."
• The Economic Effects of President Trump’s Tariffs (PENN Wharton's Budget Model, 4-10-25) "Tariffs are estimated to raise about the same amount of revenue as increasing the corporate income tax from 21 to 36 percent, in the absence of these recent tariffs. While raising the corporate tax rate is generally seen as highly economically distorting, tariffs would reduce GDP and wages by more than twice as much. All households, regardless of age or income, would be worse off. The estimated economic declines are likely lower bounds, with actual declines potentially even larger.
  nbsp; "Many existing trade and macroeconomic models fail to capture the full harm caused by tariffs, focusing mainly on the “current account” flow of goods and services. Larger tariffs would also decrease international capital flows, reducing worldwide demand for U.S. Treasuries. This is especially costly under the nation’s current baseline debt path, which is increasing faster than GDP. U.S. households would need to purchase more bonds, requiring bond prices to fall (yields increase), domestic capital investment prices to fall (the marginal product of capital increases), or both. Even conservatively assuming only domestic capital investment prices fall, the reduction in economic activity is more than twice as large as a tax increase on capital returns that raises the same amount of revenue."
• Tariff (Wikipedia) A long, informative entry.
"A tariff is a duty (a tax) imposed by a national government, customs territory, or supranational union on imports (or, exceptionally, exports) of goods. Besides being a source of revenue, import duties can also be a form of regulation of foreign trade and policy that burden foreign products to encourage or safeguard domestic industry.
'Protective tariffs' are among the most widely used instruments of protectionism, along with import quotas and export quotas and other non-tariff barriers to trade. In April 2025, President Donald Trump of the United States announced a substantial increase in tariffs and a 10% base tariff on all imported products, resulting in the US trade-weighted average tariff rising from 2% to an estimated 24%, the highest level in over a century, including under the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930" (just before the Great Depression).
• What happened the last time the US went all-in on tariffs? (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-8-25) Plus 6 other questions about Trump’s tariffs, answered.
---This Trump policy didn’t work in his first term. He’s trying again. (Eric Levitz, Vox, 2-11-25) Why steel and aluminum tariffs are back — and might stick. Trump’s commitment to re-running his experiment with large steel and aluminum tariffs is curious, since his first try yielded terrible results. It goes without saying that tariffs harm domestic consumers: Putting a tax on imported goods tends to make them more expensive.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff war isn’t over (Eric Levitz, Vox, 4-9-25) There’s a questionable assumption fueling the stock market rally. Wall Street’s burgeoning optimism for the American economy depends on the assumption that Trump will continue retreating from his current position. If he instead maintains his current course, the US will face surging prices and a heightened risk of recession.
• Timeline: All the twists and turns in the US-China trade war (Lou Robinson, Rosa de Acosta, Elisabeth Buchwald and Soph Warnes, CNN, 4-12-25) The growing trade war between China and the United States shows little signs of easing after massive tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies. Beijing raised its tariffs on US imports to 125%, one day after the White House clarified that Chinese imports now face tariffs of at least 145%. Excellent timeline showing the dizzying back-and-forth between the US and China
• On-Again, Off-Again Tariffs and Their Toll on Travelers (Elaine Glusac, The Frugal Traveler, NY Times, 4-10-25) The travel industry doesn’t know what to expect from whipsawing U.S. policies. But concerns are hitting the bottom line, which could mean higher prices, and more confusion, for tourists.
• Inside Factories in China, a Struggle to Survive Trump’s Tariffs (Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-9-25) Small factories with tiny profit margins have played a central role in China’s international competitiveness. As President Trump ratcheted up new tariffs on goods from China, the mood in the dusty streets and small factories of southeastern China was a mixture of anger, worry and resolve. Many could now face disaster.
• Between tariffs and survival, American business owners are doing alarming math (Alina Selyukh, North Country Public Radio, The Economist, 4-7-25) "Even if we pass some (cost) to the consumer, we can't pass it all," says Wells, based in Virginia. "So I really think the honest answer is that businesses will close." For some, it's survival mode, which means shrinking selections and freezing hiring.
• The tariff madness of King Donald, explained (The Economist,4-10-25) As his policy turns on a dime, pity those tasked with justifying his actions.
--- The Trump Tariffs Are How Everything Works Now (Brian Barrett, Politics, Wired, 4-3-25)
---A Quick Post About Tariffs (Kathleen Schmidt, 4-9-25) The US is barreling toward a recession for no good reason, and dragging the world—and a few thousand penguins on remote Antarctic islands—down with it. While just about every industry tries to figure out the new economic order, books are in an enviable position. [Books] are exempt from tariffs. But many of the ingredients that make up books are not. Paper, pulp, ink, fuel, shipping, and production costs (in China) are all affected, according to Publishing Confidential. There is particular concern for small publishers that use imported goods or overseas printing. They may be hit hardest as they struggle to absorb increased costs. The Wall Street Journal reports that large publishers, too, are assessing costs. Even if they have printing presses in the U.S., parts for those machines are likely made in China: “Book publishers are trying to read into what the tariffs mean for them, but say it is too early to fully gauge the potential impact.”
---An Overview of the 2025 Tariffs (ABA, BookWeb, 4-8-25)
• Chaos (Robert Reich, 4-14-25) Trump has put the entire global economy into chaos. 401(k)s are tanking, savings are shrinking, treasury bonds are losing value, supply chains are convulsing. The American oligarchy is petrified by Trump’s economic chaos but careful not to criticize him directly. They are damning with faint praise.
• Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny (Zolan Kanno-Youngs, NY Times, 4-9-25) President Trump urged his social media audience to invest in the stock market just hours before pausing most of his reciprocal tariffs, raising questions among government ethics experts about market manipulation.
• Walmart Says Tariffs Have Added Uncertainty to Its Outlook (Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-9-25) Executives at the largest retailer in the United States acknowledged the new environment, but told investors that they were confident in the company’s strategy. They emphasized that Trump’s tariff moves have made their first-quarter growth difficult to predict.
---Live Updates: U.S. Market Tumbles; Trump Says China Tariff Is at Least 145% (NY Times, 4-10-25) The S&P 500 fell 4 percent by early afternoon, as investors assessed the worsening trade war with China. The White House clarified the total new tariffs on Chinese goods now stands at 145 percent.
---This Trump policy didn’t work in his first term. He’s trying again. (Eric Levitz, Vox, 2-11-25) Why steel and aluminum tariffs are back — and might stick. Trump’s commitment to re-running his experiment with large steel and aluminum tariffs is curious, since his first try yielded terrible results. It goes without saying that tariffs harm domestic consumers: Putting a tax on imported goods tends to make them more expensive.
---What Trump’s tariff pause can’t solve (Nicole Narea, Vox, 4-10-25) Nobody knows what Trump will do next — and that’s a problem. Even with some of the tariffs paused, there’s a deeper economic malaise taking hold. The uncertainty created by Trump’s whiplash-inducing changes to the US’s trade policy is not just going to evaporate. And even at their current level, Trump’s tariffs are already upending the global trade order in hard-to-predict ways. That’s a problem for business owners, investors, and the everyday Americans impacted by their decisions. The pullback did nothing to address economic uncertainty.
---Trump’s tariff plan is an inflation plan (Ellen Ioanes, Vox, 11-26-24) New tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could make life more expensive.
---Tariffs, trade war inflation impact to be ‘pretty ugly’ by summer, economists say (Greg Iacurci, CNBC, 4-10-[25) Economists expect that tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers. The price impact will be noticeable by summer, economists said. Food prices will be among the early indicators, then physical goods, they said. President Donald Trump may change course regarding policy, however.
---U.S. and China Headed for ‘Monumental’ Split, Putting World Economy on Edge (Daisuke Wakabayashi, Alexandra Stevenson, Patricia Cohen, and Keith Bradsher, NY Times, 4-10-25) Good graphics and timelines. A dizzying escalation of tariffs has unraveled a trade relationship between the United States and China forged over decades, jeopardizing the fate of two superpowers and threatening to drag down the world economy.
"The brinkmanship displayed by the two countries has already far exceeded the battles they waged during President Trump’s first term. In 2018 and 2019, Mr. Trump raised tariffs on China over 14 months. The latest escalation has played out mostly over a matter of days, with levies that are far greater and apply to broader swath of goods."
• U.S. stocks slide again as euphoria over Trump's tariff pause fades (Willem Marx and Sherisse Pham, NPR, 4-10-25) U.S. stocks slumped on Thursday, giving up a chunk of the spectacular gains seen in the previous session, as some of the relief after President Trump paused many of his tariffs started to dissipate. Many investors say they would rather see an end to this explosive trade war between the world's two largest economies. But China's foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, said on Thursday that China is prepared to continue fighting. But, Minton Beddoes adds, the economic turmoil caused by the tariffs creates "a lot uncertainty, and a lot pain for consumers because tariffs are taxes on consumers. The people who pay this in the end, the cost of the tariffs, are people who pay more for the things that they buy."
Also in this issue: On if the tariffs are to re-industrialize America, or if they're a negotiating tool. Sen. Maria Cantwell says there is bipartisan support to rein Trump's tariffs. Trump trade official signals tariffs are negotiating tool amid GOP skepticism. On the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. On what a tariff war with China might look like
"Being in Washington, DC this week has felt like being on the fringes of an all-consuming—and terrifying—reality TV spectacle: the Trump Tariff Show. Against the made-for-TV backdrop of America’s capital in (somewhat chilly) springtime, my colleagues and I shuttled around to meetings with administration officials, congressmen, diplomats and scholars. We learned about the divisions among Donald Trump’s economic advisers (crudely, the “pause and negotiate” camp led by Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, versus hardliners, such as Peter Navarro). We heard earnest—if unconvincing—attempts by officials to explain the logic of causing the biggest tariff shock in history. We witnessed the bafflement of diplomats and politicians from tariffed countries. We could sense the growing alarm as the markets plunged—and the bewildered relief on Wednesday afternoon after Mr Trump blinked and announced a 90-day pause on his bonkers “reciprocal” tariffs.
• Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button (Kevin Liptak, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Kayla Tausche and Alayna Treene, CNN, 4-9-25)
"Even for a president famous for his policy bobs and weaves, Wednesday’s announcement he was pausing his long-touted reciprocal tariffs for three months amounted to a stunning reversal of a plan he had appeared only a day earlier to be fully behind and came as his own trade representative was testifying on Capitol Hill to the benefits of the tariffs, seemingly catching him unaware of the pause.
"Days of pressure from fellow Republicans, business executives and even his close friends hadn’t appeared to move Trump, who insisted last week: “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”
"By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted.
"It was another whirlwind Wednesday at the White House, with advisers scrambling to keep pace with the president’s decisions. He sought to take a victory lap after one of the most humbling retreats of his presidency, eager to take credit for the stock market gains Wednesday – without mentioning the record-setting, trillion-dollar losses over the last week.
• China urges Trump to correct mistakes and heed ‘rational voices’ on reciprocal tariffs (Erin Doherty, CNBC, 4-13-25) China called the tariff exemptions a “small step” and urged the U.S. to “completely abolish” the reciprocal tariffs.
“We urge the U.S. to heed the rational voices of the international community and domestic parties, take a big stride in correcting its mistakes,” according to China’s Commerce Ministry. China is also “evaluating the relevant impact” of the tariff exemptions.
• How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance ( Reuters, 4-13-25) After unsuccessfully courting Trump, Beijing takes hardline stance on trade, orders foreign affairs and commerce officials to cancel vacations. Trump says China has panicked. China tries to rally international support against tariffs.